By now, anyone who cares is aware that the Canadiens finished the season third from the bottom in the overall league standings. That means third, in the drawing that will take place tonight to establish the order of the first round of the June 27th entry draft.
At the end of the night, the Canadiens will hold either first, third or fourth pick. Betting on anything other than the third pick is going against pretty long odds. Here they are – Probability of Canadiens winning the lottery – 14.2%. Retaining third – 70.3%. Chance of winding up with fourth pick – 29.7%. That can only happen if one of the 4th through 8th seeded teams wins the lottery.
Anything’s possible. In the 16 years of the draft, the third seed has won four times. Granted, the sampling is a small one but 25% does fly in the face of the calculated 14.2%. Gr Going from third to first are – Tampa Bay – 1998 (they drafted Vincent Lecavalier); Atlanta – 2001 (Ilya Kovalchuk); Florida – 2002 (pick traded to Columbus who chose Rick Nash) and Washington -2004 (Alexander Ovechkin).
Place your bets.
For those who missed it earlier, we’ll repeat the form chart.
2012-DRAFT DRAWING PROBABILITY CHART (final standings – April 9,2012)
|Current||————- PERCENTAGES OF ————-|
|Non-Playoff Club *||Draft Pos.||Pts||If Selected||Winning||Getting 1st||Dropping||Not Dropping|
|Columbus||1||65||Retain 1st pick||25.0%||48.2%||51.8%||48.2%|
|Edmonton||2||74||2nd to 1st||18.8%||18.8%||39.2%||60.8%|
|Montreal||3||78||3rd to 1st||14.2%||14.2%||29.7%||70.3%|
|NY Islanders||4||79||4th to 1st||10.7%||10.7%||22.6%||77.4%|
|Toronto||5||80||5th to 1st||8.1%||8.1%||17.2%||82.8%|
Winning – percentage chance of winning the Draft Drawing (see above, ‘If Selected’) Getting 1st – percentage chance of being awarded the first overall pick as a result of the Draft Drawing Dropping – percentage chance of moving down in the draft order as a result of the Draft Drawing Not Dropping – percentage chance of not moving down in the draft order as a result of the Draft Drawing
There will be only one “winner” of the lottery. It could be any one of fourteen teams but if one of the teams outside the top five wins, the rules state they can only move up four places, leaving Columbus holding number one overall. Last year, eighth seeded New Jersey, with a 3.6% chance, won the lottery and moved to fourth overall and in June drafted Adam Larsson. Edmonton, retaining number one, took Calder Trophy candidate Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Results of Previous Draft Drawings
|Year||Selected||Effect On Draft Order||Player Selected|
|1995||Los Angeles||Moved from 7th to 3rd||D Aki Berg|
|1996||Ottawa||Retained 1st selection||D Chris Phillips|
|1997||Boston||Retained 1st selection||C Joe Thornton|
|1998||Tampa Bay||Moved from 3rd to 1st via trades||C Vincent Lecavalier|
|1999||Chicago||Moved from 8th to 4th||RW Pavel Brendl *|
|2000||NY Islanders||Moved from 5th to 1st||G Rick DiPietro|
|2001||Atlanta||Moved from 3rd to 1st||LW Ilya Kovalchuk|
|2002||Florida||Moved from 3rd to 1st||LW Rick Nash **|
|2003||Florida||Moved from 4th to 1st||G Marc-Andre Fleury ***|
|2004||Washington||Moved from 3rd to 1st||LW Alex Ovechkin|
|2005||Pittsburgh||n/a||C Sidney Crosby|
|2006||St. Louis||Retained 1st selection||D Erik Johnson|
|2007||Chicago||Moved from 5th to 1st||RW Patrick Kane|
|2008||Tampa Bay||Retained 1st selection||C Steven Stamkos|
|2009||NY Islanders||Retained 1st selection||C John Tavares|
|2010||Edmonton||Retained 1st selection||LW Taylor Hall|
* San Jose was selected, but Tampa Bay held the right to exchange first round selections with the Sharks. ** NY Rangers obtained Chicago’s pick in a trade (via Vancouver and Tampa Bay). The Rangers selected RW Pavel Brendl fourth overall. *** Columbus obtained Florida’s pick in a draft table swap of first and third overall picks. The Blue Jackets selected LW Rick Nash first overall. ^ Pittsburgh obtained Florida’s pick in a trade. The Penguins selected G Marc-Andre Fleury first overall. ^^ Due to a work stoppage, the draft order was not based on the previous seasons standing; all 30 teams were eligible for the first-overall selection.